SMM: after three consecutive days of continuous decline, the Salt Lake Lithium extraction Plate ushered in a low rebound last Friday and continued to rise today. The Salt Lake Lithium extraction Index once rose more than 2.8% in intraday trading, driving a number of concept stocks to rise one after another. by midday, International General Motors, Zangge Mining, Salt Lake shares and Zhaoxin shares were up by the daily limit, Ganfeng Lithium Industry, Tianqi Lithium Industry, Jinyuan shares. Tibetan mining and other stocks rose more than 7%.
On the news, on January 21, Qinghai held the Seventh session of the 13th National people's Congress. At the meeting, Qinghai Governor Xin Changxing said in a government work report that speeding up the construction of a world-class salt lake industrial base is the primary task of Qinghai Province in 2022. Moreover, the government work report also points out that Qinghai will focus on improving the competitiveness of strategic emerging industries, starting with strong chains, extended chains and complementary chains, so as to improve the comprehensive efficiency of salt lake resources utilization.
In order to achieve the goal of "expanding the scale of lithium industry, releasing lithium carbonate production capacity, and raising the level of lithium battery industry", Qinghai will set up a salt lake industry development fund, introduce a number of high-tech leading enterprises, and promote salt lake industrial clusters to strengthen their muscles and bones.
As soon as the news came out, in the context of the general decline in the major themes of A shares on the same day, the Salt Lake Lithium Index rose against the market, and a number of stocks accelerated, and the remaining rhyme of this news has not completely subsided until now.
As we all know, China's high-quality lithium resources are scarce, and domestic lithium concentrates mainly rely on imports, but China's salt lake lithium extraction resources are very rich. According to the statistics of the US Geological Survey, China has proven lithium reserves of about 7 million tons, of which lithium extraction from salt lakes accounts for about 80 per cent. The salt lake brine type lithium deposits in Qinghai account for more than half of the proven lithium resources in China. Therefore, the influence of Qinghai's declaration of "speeding up the construction of a world-class salt lake industrial base" is self-evident.
Recently, the lithium ore end is also full of twists and turns when the lithium ore resources continue to be scarce. The news that BYD won the contract for 80,000 tons of lithium production quota in the Chilean court, but was halted by the Chilean court, was still haunted by the news that Serbia vetoed Rio Tinto's largest lithium mining plan in Europe. and the stimulus of revoking the lithium exploration license of Anglo-Australian mining giant Rio Tinto led to a strong rebound in lithium stocks at that time. Rio Tinto is obviously not alone, and the lithium project in Nevada is currently facing a lot of resistance.
From this, it can be seen that the current supply situation of lithium resources is grim. According to a recent survey by SMM, the total production capacity of lithium concentrate in spodumene mines worldwide is about 2.7 million tons in 2021, a decrease of about 8 per cent compared with the same period last year. The rapid expansion of lithium mine in the early stage led to the imbalance between supply and demand and the decline of prices, in which Altura mine went bankrupt and reorganized and fell into a state of suspension due to its low price unable to support production and operation, and production capacity was reduced.
Domestically, according to SMM estimates, China's spodumene concentrate inventory was about 240000 tons at the end of December 2021, a 50 per cent drop compared with the same period last year. In 2022, even if some overseas mines restart or bring significant increments, the market inventory will still be further consumed in the case of expanding downstream demand. "View details
As a result, under the explosive growth of downstream demand, domestic lithium salt prices have repeatedly brushed three-year record highs. Battery-grade lithium carbonate, which has been rising fiercely in 2021, has accelerated its upward trend with a daily increase of more than 5000 yuan / ton after entering 2022. As of January 21, the average spot price of domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate was 349000 yuan / ton, up 25.53% from the beginning of the year.
"Click to view the spot historical price of SMM new energy products.
SMM recent research shows that in January, the overhaul of some lithium salt enterprises led to a reduction in supply, the market is difficult to obtain. Recently, the mainstream head enterprises have few quotations, and a small number of small and medium-sized lithium salt factories and material factories have quoted a small amount of 36.5-370000 yuan / ton, as some enterprises still have a gap, procurement is still continuing. "View details
For the future trend of lithium prices, SMM believes that with the approach of the Spring Festival, logistics will begin to stagnate one after another next week. Overseas imports may remain low in January-February due to the Christmas holiday. After the Spring Festival, due to the poor stock preparation of enterprises in February-March, it is difficult for prices to be stable or fall as in previous years. "View details
Northeast Securities said that in the short and medium term, the increment that can be provided by new lithium mining projects may be very limited, and it will be difficult for the new lithium supply in the next few years to match the annual demand growth of 10 to 250000 tons of LCE+. The contradiction between supply and demand in the industry may exist for a long time, and it is optimistic about the long-term high prosperity of "white oil" lithium resources.
Huaan Securities believes that the current lithium salt manufacturers have entered the maintenance period, the supply is tight catalytic price rise is expected. At present, the stock in advance of the Trade Festival is basically completed, and the market trading volume near the Spring Festival has decreased, and the high lithium price is expected to maintain a stable operation.
The lithium industry has been a particularly popular track in the past year, and a number of enterprises in the industrial chain have also handed in a more eye-catching report card under the rising prices of lithium-related products. SMM has roughly sorted out the pre-increase of the performance of a large number of lithium industry chain enterprises that have issued performance forecasts, including polyfluoroduo, one of the leading enterprises of electrolyte, and salt lake lithium extraction hot stocks in Tibet. The performance of Qomolangma both increased by more than 2000%!
Details can be moved to the "lithium electricity" explosion in 2021! The performance of 27 lithium power enterprises is expected to increase by more than 2000%! [SMM project] "View.
